Global pay-TV revenues to slip $30B by 2026; US losses to top $23B

Global pay-TV revenues are forecast to decline more than $30 billion in the next five years, with the biggest losses coming in the United States.

Digital TV Research expects the U.S. pay-TV market to decline $23 billion by 2026, from $80.3 billion a year ago. Between 2010 and 2020 revenues in the U.S have fallen more than $17 billion. The U.S. market saw revenues peak at $1-4 billion in 2015. The forecast decline by 2026 will equate to nearly 45%, or $46.6 billion.

Among the largest pay-TV markets, only India is expected to see revenues increase between 2020 and 2026, about 12% ($0.5 billion). China, currently the world’s second-largest pay-TV market, is expected to decline 4.3% to $8.9 billion. Also declining: the United Kingdom (-12.6%), Canada (-14%), and the rest of the world (-8%).

Global pay-TV revenues topped $210B in 2016

In 2020, global pay-TV revenues for the 138 countries in the study were $173 billion.  They’re forecast to decline to $164.8 this year and $143 billion in 2026. Global pay-TV revenues were $201 billion in 2016. Fewer than half (61) of the pay-TV markets are expected to see an increase in pay-TV revenues.

Pay TV has battled enormous headwinds over the past decade as over-the-top) (OTT) services have met with massive consumer adoption.

Revenue for global OTT services is expected to double by 2026, to more than $210 billion.

DTVR principal analyst and author of the study, Simon Murray, said global satellite TV revenues will decline $16 billion. Digital cable losses will top $12 billion and analogue cable operators losing another $2 billion.

Jim O’Neill is Director of Strategic Consulting and Principal Analyst at Brightcove. You can follow him on Twitter @JimONeillMedia and on LinkedIn